Modern model tools such as climate models, hydrological-hydrogeological models and ecological models enable quantitative statements to be made in order to represent the resource water in the natural system with sufficient accuracy. Based on these analyses, the efficiency of new technologies can then be assessed in order to improve the system condition in the long term.
Agricultural model (MONICA):
With the help of high-resolution seasonal weather forecasts, the yield of cultivated crops can be simulated. The undercutting of the long-term yield average serves as an indicator for a warning system. For this purpose, limit values for a drought are used. The determination of such limit values is the subject of current research.
Hydrological-water management model (SWIM):
The SWIM model can be used to simulate quasi-natural discharges (without anthropogenic influences such as dams, etc.), as well as the managed discharges of the Spree. For this purpose, essential water balance variables in the catchment area of the Spree are taken into account. Some water balance variables also depend on land use. These are also taken into account.
Drainage N-A model (STORM.XXL):
This water balance and solute transport model enables the simulation of natural and technical water management systems of various types. The model was developed by Ingenieurgesellschaft Prof. Dr. Sieker mbH (IPS) and used in the field of flood forecasting for the design of channel sets and water bodies.
Ecological model (QSim):
The water quality model QSim represents complex chemical and biological processes in flowing waters. It can simulate the following parameters:
- Water temperature
- oxygen and nutrient balance of algae and zooplankton development
- Suspended sediment concentration
- Approaches to simulate the transport of sulfate in the river Spree
Socio-economic model:
Against the background of a predicted decrease in the Spree discharge and associated water use competitions, impacts on economic development are also to be expected. In the context of a socio-economic assessment, all direct, but also indirect water uses (such as for water supply, agriculture, inland fishery, industry, forestry, recreation and tourism, as well as for the preservation of ecosystems) can be identified, analyzed and systematically presented. When developing scenarios, future risks and competing uses can be taken into account.
Soil and Groundwater Model (HydroGeoSphere):
In this model, the calculation of the transient, three-dimensional water flow in the saturated and unsaturated zone is performed in a lag-time simulation. The combined numerical modeling of these two zones allows to derive long-term forecasts for groundwater recharge as well as vertical water fluxes. The goal is to use the model to derive management approaches to increase water retention and reduce runoff from the landscape, as well as to derive groundwater management measures to improve groundwater recharge.
