Droughts - more frequent and more acute
In the past, extreme drought periods have had devastating impacts in many countries. Based on climate projections, it is expected that drought frequency and intensity will also increase in Germany. This necessitates user-specific, forward-looking, data-driven early warning systems and tools to ensure efficient management of the limited resources of soil and water in the future.
For the targeted use of irrigation water and early tactical decisions regarding fleet management, water resource planning, and crop management measures to adapt to an impending dry period, a web-based early warning system is being developed based on daily, temporal-spatial high-resolution simulation of crop growth and yield formation with an agroecosystem model (MONICA). These simulations incorporate short- and medium-term weather forecasts as well as real-time soil moisture data via an assimilation algorithm. Threshold values developed in the project for evaluating the intensity of an approaching drought define individual warning levels. Scenarios for irrigation applications (optimal application, deficit irrigation) integrated into the early warning system make it easier for irrigating farms to derive an individual strategy for the optimal use of available resources. Decision-makers at regional level benefit from indications of withdrawal peaks for holding water reserves or preparing withdrawal bans.
ZALF & SpreeWasser:N present
© ZALF/ Roland Baatz
Within SpreeWasser:N, the drought early warning system is being developed using the ZALF-based MONICA software. The system highlights differences between threshold values and expected balance quantities, identifying risk areas. It provides forecasts for potential drought stress:
i) Short-term forecasts (2–3 weeks) for irrigation strategies, water resource planning, and fleet management.
ii) Seasonal forecasts (3–6 months) for planning tactical adaptation measures at the farm level (water resource management, crop production) and administrative actions at the level of water suppliers (maintaining water resources for peak withdrawals, preparing withdrawal bans).
Users of the drought early warning system include regional farmers and the Central Germany Irrigation Association, as well as supra-regional water suppliers and municipalities.
