Predictions of the probability of dryness and heavy rainfall

Short-term weather forecasts over several days are already very accurate today. Nevertheless, in the case of events such as local heavy rainfall, it is not yet possible today to accurately predict the affected locations and the amount of precipitation for this period.

This is even more true for longer-term forecasts over a period of several weeks to several years, and of course also for climate scenarios, which mostly extend to the end of the current century. Here, it can only be a matter of estimating probabilities. Whether and to what extent a dry period or a heavy rain event is relevant depends not only on its duration and intensity, but also, for example, on the season of occurrence.